Survival, the IISS’s bimonthly journal, challenges conventional wisdom and brings fresh, often controversial, perspectives on strategic issues of the moment.In this issue: Marcus Willet argues that the Russia–Ukraine war reveals much about the nature of cyber warfare, including the battle for hearts and minds and the role of ‘vigilantes’ Angela Stent contends that Putin badly misjudged how Germany would respond to the war in Ukraine in failing to anticipate that Olaf Scholz would provisionally jettison Ostpolitik Jude Blanchette and Evan S. Medeiros assess likely drivers and characteristics of Xi Jinping’s upcoming third term as Chinese leader Nicholas Crawford and David F. Gordon make the case that the green-energy transition is essential, despite new geopolitical risks caused by ‘greenflation’ Nigel Gould-Davies examines the recent foreign-policy failures of Belarus and Russia and sets out three lessons for a post-war order in the region And five more thought-provoking pieces, as well as our regular Book Reviews and Noteworthy column.